Section A: Key terms and recall
Define the term birth rate. [1 mark]
Show model answer
Birth rate is the number of live births per 1,000 people in a population in a given year. (1 mark)
Define the term death rate. [1 mark]
Show model answer
Death rate is the number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population in a given year. (1 mark)
Define the term net migration. [1 mark]
Show model answer
Net migration is the difference between the number of people entering a country (immigrants) and the number leaving it (emigrants) in a given year. (1 mark)
Define the term dependency ratio. [2 marks]
Show model answer
The dependency ratio compares the number of people who are not in the labour force (dependents, usually those under 15 and those aged 65 and over) with the number of people of working age. It is usually written as the number of dependents divided by the working-age population, multiplied by 100. (1 mark for the idea of comparing dependents with workers, 1 mark for the formula or a correct example.)
State two factors that could cause a fall in a country's birth rate. [2 marks]
Show model answer
Any two of: more education and employment opportunities for women; greater availability and use of contraception; a higher cost of raising children; lower infant mortality, so families need fewer births to reach their desired family size; government family-planning policies; later marriage. (1 mark for each correct factor, maximum 2 marks.)
State two factors that could cause a fall in a country's death rate. [2 marks]
Show model answer
Any two of: better healthcare and medical technology; improved sanitation and clean water; better nutrition; higher incomes; more health education; fewer wars and less civil conflict. (1 mark for each correct factor, maximum 2 marks.)
Section B: Applying your knowledge
In the fictional country of Marisol, the birth rate is 35 per 1,000 and the death rate is 10 per 1,000. Explain one effect that this is likely to have on the size of Marisol's population. [3 marks]
Show model answer
The birth rate is much higher than the death rate, so natural increase is 25 per 1,000. This means the population will grow quickly, unless emigration is large enough to cancel it out. (1 mark for identifying that the population will grow, 1 mark for using the figures to show natural increase, 1 mark for explaining that a population grows when births exceed deaths.)
In the fictional town of Kestrel Bay, many young workers have moved abroad to find better-paid jobs. Explain one effect this could have on the town's population structure. [2 marks]
Show model answer
Emigration of young workers reduces the number of people of working age, so the proportion of older people in the town rises. The population becomes older on average and the dependency ratio increases. (1 mark for identifying a fall in the working-age group, 1 mark for explaining the effect on the age structure or the dependency ratio.)
The fictional country of Nordia has an ageing population, with a rising share of people aged 65 and over. Explain one effect this could have on government spending. [3 marks]
Show model answer
An ageing population means more government spending on healthcare and pensions, because older people tend to use health services more and receive state pensions. The government may have to raise taxes or cut other spending to pay for this. (1 mark for identifying higher spending on health or pensions, 1 mark for explaining why older people need these services, 1 mark for the effect on taxes or other spending.)
In the fictional country of Tarran, the population is growing rapidly. Explain one possible effect of this on firms in Tarran. [3 marks]
Show model answer
A growing population means more potential customers, so firms may see higher demand for goods and services and may expand. It also means more workers are available, which can hold wages down. However, firms may face higher costs if resources such as land and raw materials become scarce. (1 mark for identifying an effect on demand or labour supply, 1 mark for explaining it, 1 mark for a developed link such as expansion, lower wages or higher costs.)
Calculation practice
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Total population | 40,000,000 |
| Birth rate (per 1,000) | 24 |
| Death rate (per 1,000) | 9 |
| Net migration (per 1,000) | +2 |
| Population aged 0 to 14 | 12,000,000 |
| Population aged 15 to 64 | 24,000,000 |
| Population aged 65 and over | 4,000,000 |
Using the table, calculate Riverton's rate of natural increase and its total population growth rate in 2024. Show your workings. [4 marks]
Show model answer
Natural increase = birth rate minus death rate = 24 minus 9 = 15 per 1,000. (2 marks: 1 for the correct method, 1 for the correct answer.) Total growth rate = natural increase plus net migration = 15 plus 2 = 17 per 1,000. (2 marks: 1 for the correct method, 1 for the correct answer.)
Using the table, calculate Riverton's dependency ratio in 2024. Show your workings and give your answer to one decimal place. [3 marks]
Show model answer
Dependents = 12,000,000 plus 4,000,000 = 16,000,000. (1 mark) Dependency ratio = 16,000,000 divided by 24,000,000, multiplied by 100 = 66.7. (2 marks: 1 for correct substitution, 1 for the correct answer.)
Section C: Explain and analyse
Explain two factors that could cause the population of a country to grow. [6 marks]
Show model answer
Award up to 3 marks for each factor explained. Example one: a high birth rate. If families have many children, the number of births per 1,000 people rises, so more people are added to the population each year. This is likely when women have fewer education and employment opportunities and contraception is not widely available. Example two: net immigration. If more people enter the country than leave it, the population rises even when births equal deaths. Immigration is often caused by higher wages or better job prospects in the destination country. Other acceptable factors include a falling death rate, improved healthcare and government policies that encourage larger families. (3 marks for each well-explained factor: 1 for identifying the factor, 1 for explaining how it raises population, 1 for a developed link or example.)
Discuss the possible effects of an ageing population on an economy. [5 marks]
Show model answer
Award up to 3 marks for effects and up to 2 marks for development or evaluation. Effects may include: higher government spending on healthcare and pensions, which may require higher taxes or cuts elsewhere; a smaller proportion of workers, which can reduce output and raise wage costs; a rise in the dependency ratio; and slower economic growth. On the other hand, an ageing population creates demand for goods and services such as healthcare, leisure and retirement housing, which can create jobs, and firms may invest in labour-saving technology. Evaluation: the size of the effect depends on how large the older group is, whether people work beyond retirement age, and whether the government has saved enough to pay pensions. (1 mark for each relevant effect, up to 3; 1 mark for developing an effect with a consequence; 1 mark for a judgement or balanced comment.)
Explain how a fall in the death rate can change the size and the structure of a population. [4 marks]
Show model answer
A fall in the death rate means fewer people die each year, so if the birth rate stays the same, natural increase rises and the population grows. (2 marks: 1 for the effect on size, 1 for the link to natural increase.) The structure also changes, because more people survive into old age, so the average age of the population rises and the proportion of older people increases. (2 marks: 1 for the effect on structure, 1 for explaining that more people live longer.)
Section D: Challenge
The government of the fictional country of Aldervale wants to slow down its rapid population growth. Discuss whether encouraging smaller families is the best policy to achieve this. [5 marks]
Show model answer
Award up to 3 marks for arguments about birth-rate policies and up to 2 marks for a judgement. Arguments for: family-planning advice, free contraception and education for girls can lower the birth rate and reduce natural increase, and these policies are relatively cheap. Arguments against: population growth may also come from immigration or from a falling death rate, which birth-rate policies do not affect, so immigration controls or policies to spread the population more evenly might be needed instead; birth-rate policies may be unpopular or conflict with religious and cultural values; and a lower birth rate today leads to an ageing population later. Judgement: encouraging smaller families can reduce population growth, but it is unlikely to be the best policy on its own, because it takes many years to work and does not deal with immigration or with the effects of a falling death rate. A combination of policies is likely to be more effective. (1 mark for each relevant argument, up to 3; 1 mark for a supported judgement; 1 mark for a balanced conclusion that considers alternatives.)