Section A: Key terms and recall
Define the term 'current account' in the context of the balance of payments. [2 marks]
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The current account is the sum of a country's net exports of goods and services, net income from abroad (such as interest and dividends), and net transfers (such as foreign aid and remittances). It records the trade in goods and services, income flows, and transfers between countries. [2 marks]
List the two main components of the current account. [2 marks]
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The two main components of the current account are the trade balance (exports minus imports of goods and services) and the income and transfer balance (net income from abroad and net transfers). [2 marks]
What does a current account surplus indicate? [1 mark]
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A current account surplus indicates that a country is earning more from its net exports of goods and services, net income from abroad, and net transfers than it is spending on imports. [1 mark]
Identify two possible causes of a current account deficit. [2 marks]
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Two possible causes of a current account deficit are: 1. A country importing more goods and services than it exports. 2. A country spending more on income payments to foreign entities than it earns from foreign investments. [2 marks]
Give one consequence of a persistent current account deficit. [1 mark]
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One consequence of a persistent current account deficit is a depletion of foreign exchange reserves, which can lead to a devaluation of the currency. [1 mark]
Section B: Applying your knowledge
Country X has the following trade data for the year:
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Trade balance = (Exports of goods + Exports of services) - (Imports of goods + Imports of services) Trade balance = ($50 billion + $20 billion) - ($60 billion + $15 billion) = -$5 billion The trade balance for Country X is a deficit of $5 billion. [2 marks]
Country Y has a current account deficit. Suggest two possible reasons for this deficit. [2 marks]
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Two possible reasons for Country Y's current account deficit are: 1. Country Y is importing more goods and services than it is exporting. 2. Country Y is spending more on income payments to foreign entities than it is earning from foreign investments. [2 marks]
Explain how a currency devaluation might help to reduce a current account deficit. [3 marks]
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A currency devaluation makes a country's exports cheaper for foreign buyers, which can increase the quantity of exports. At the same time, imports become more expensive for domestic consumers, which can decrease the quantity of imports. This can help to reduce the current account deficit by improving the trade balance. [3 marks]
Country Z has a current account surplus. What might be the impact of this surplus on the country's exchange rate? [2 marks]
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A current account surplus can lead to an appreciation of the country's exchange rate. This is because the surplus indicates that the country is earning more from its net exports, net income from abroad, and net transfers than it is spending on imports. This increased demand for the country's currency can drive up its value. [2 marks]
Identify two policies that a government might use to achieve balance of payments stability. [2 marks]
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Two policies that a government might use to achieve balance of payments stability are: 1. Fiscal policy: The government can use its revenue and expenditure to influence the level of aggregate demand in the economy. For example, it can increase taxes or cut spending to reduce aggregate demand and improve the balance of payments. 2. Monetary policy: The central bank can use interest rates and the money supply to influence the level of aggregate demand. For example, it can increase interest rates to make borrowing more expensive and reduce aggregate demand, which can improve the balance of payments. [2 marks]
Section C: Explain and analyse
Explain the possible consequences of a persistent current account deficit for a country's economy. [4 marks]
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A persistent current account deficit can have several consequences for a country's economy: 1. Depletion of foreign exchange reserves: A persistent current account deficit can lead to a depletion of a country's foreign exchange reserves, which can make it difficult for the country to meet its international payment obligations. 2. Currency devaluation: A persistent current account deficit can put downward pressure on a country's exchange rate, leading to a devaluation of the currency. This can make imports more expensive and reduce the purchasing power of domestic consumers. 3. Increased borrowing: A persistent current account deficit can lead to increased borrowing from foreign entities, which can increase the country's external debt and make it more vulnerable to changes in global financial markets. 4. Reduced economic growth: A persistent current account deficit can indicate that a country is spending more than it is earning, which can lead to reduced investment and slower economic growth. [4 marks]
Analyse the possible policies that a government might use to reduce a current account deficit. [5 marks]
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To reduce a current account deficit, a government might consider the following policies: 1. Exchange rate policy: A government can use exchange rate policy to make its exports cheaper and its imports more expensive. For example, it can devalue its currency or allow it to float freely to make exports more competitive. 2. Trade policy: A government can use trade policy to restrict imports and promote exports. For example, it can impose tariffs or quotas on imports or provide subsidies to exporters. 3. Fiscal policy: A government can use fiscal policy to reduce aggregate demand and improve the trade balance. For example, it can increase taxes or cut spending to reduce domestic consumption and increase savings. 4. Monetary policy: A government can use monetary policy to reduce aggregate demand and improve the trade balance. For example, it can increase interest rates to make borrowing more expensive and reduce domestic consumption. 5. Structural policy: A government can use structural policy to improve the productivity and competitiveness of its industries. For example, it can invest in education and infrastructure or promote research and development to make its industries more competitive in the global market. [5 marks]
Section D: Challenge
Country A has a current account deficit, while Country B has a current account surplus. Both countries are trading partners. Discuss the possible implications of these balance of payments positions for the two countries and the global economy. [6 marks]
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The current account positions of Country A and Country B can have several implications for the two countries and the global economy: 1. For Country A: - A persistent current account deficit can lead to a depletion of foreign exchange reserves, making it difficult for the country to meet its international payment obligations. - It can also lead to a devaluation of the currency, making imports more expensive and reducing the purchasing power of domestic consumers. - Country A may need to borrow from foreign entities to finance its deficit, increasing its external debt and making it more vulnerable to changes in global financial markets. 2. For Country B: - A persistent current account surplus can lead to an appreciation of the currency, making exports more expensive and reducing the competitiveness of domestic industries in the global market. - It can also lead to increased savings and reduced domestic consumption, which can slow economic growth. - Country B may need to invest its surplus in foreign assets, which can increase its exposure to changes in global financial markets. 3. For the global economy: - The imbalance between Country A's deficit and Country B's surplus can lead to global imbalances, which can increase the risk of financial crises and economic instability. - It can also lead to increased protectionism and trade tensions, as countries seek to protect their domestic industries and reduce their trade deficits. - The global economy may need to adjust to these imbalances, which can lead to increased volatility and uncertainty in financial markets. [6 marks]